With 200 days remaining until the midterm elections, most of the punditry seems to have decided that Democrats will face crushing losses in November. The reality is more complex, as Republicans are finding themselves out of step with the mainstream electorate, while underperforming historic precedents for midterm elections. What’s more, the anticipated Republican victory in…
New Data Showing ‘Silver Surge’ of Senior Voters Raises Questions About Conventional Wisdom Before the polls closed in Virginia on Election Day 2021, conventional wisdom was baked: Governor Youngkin bested Terry McAuliffe because of anger over school closures, mask mandates and supposed anger over ‘Critical Race Theory.’ NPR wrote that, “Democrats have to come up with…
Next Tuesday, voters across Virginia will cast their ballots in the 2021 general election. While all indicators point to a close race, early vote returns so far look promising for Democrats. Using TargetSmart’s TargetEarly dashboard, we are able to analyze a wealth of data about who has already voted in Virginia and compare it to…
By Joe Garland From November 2020 through July 2021, over 8.6 million voters were purged from official registration lists nationwide.[1] Voter purges occur for a variety of reasons – elections officials are required by the National Voter Registration Act[2] to continuously maintain their voter registration lists by removing the names of voters who move or die,…
Insights from 2020 turnout patterns among Latino voters in Maricopa County, Arizona and Miami-Dade County, Florida By: Ben Lazarus and Joe Garland In honor of National Hispanic Heritage Month, TargetSmart is diving back into our voter data on the 2020 general election, with a couple specific, local looks at the impacts of the Latino vote in…
August was a big month on Capitol Hill, but September is going to be even bigger! Lawmakers in Congress moved forward with a bipartisan $1 trillion infrastructure package and the Democrats followed shortly behind with a $3.5 trillion budget blueprint that, combined, will advance critical pieces of the Biden Administration’s ambitious policy agenda. Many of…
As one of the pioneers of data in modern day politics, TargetSmart believes that good data makes you smarter. Good data helps candidates and organizations identify their most likely supporters, craft effective messaging and make the right decisions. That’s more important than ever in today’s political climate and it means we’re also constantly looking for…
Insights from the 2020 General Election: First-Time Voter Dip – What does it Mean? While 2020 saw record voter turnout across the board, there was actually a significant decrease in the number of voters who cast a ballot for the first time compared to 2016. In the 2020 election 16,911,179 first time voters made up 10.9% of…
By: Tom Bonier The 2020 US election was anticipated as the most consequential in US history. The Capitol insurrection attempt on January 6th and subsequent GOP efforts to minimize the seriousness of the event while continuing to undermine the legitimacy of the election suggests that the ’22 midterms could surpass the importance of the 2020…
President Biden has rolled out the most progressive policy agenda in a generation. With aspirations to raise the minimum wage, build a path to citizenship for immigrants, curb gun violence, make it easier to vote, and address climate change by generating millions of new clean energy jobs, the Biden Administration is pushing policies aimed at…
Women of color play a critical role in American democracy. They represent some of the fastest growing voting blocs in the country and were instrumental in delivering the Biden-Harris ticket to victory in battleground states. Nationally, turnout among women of color increased by over 10% from 2016 to 2020. This surge was especially prominent among Hispanic and AAPI women,…
This blog post marks the first in a series of reports digging deeper into the data from the 2020 general election. You can find an introduction to the series and background on TargetSmart’s voter file here. In 2020, more young voters cast a ballot than ever before. In total, voters aged 18-39 accounted for more than…
By: Tom Bonier, TargetSmart CEO A swing of just 21,459 votes from Biden to Trump would have reversed the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. That equates to one one-hundredth of one percent of the record setting total turnout of more than 158 million votes cast. The relative closeness of this election has been well-reported.…
This past November, Americans rose up in the midst of a global pandemic to participate in what must be considered one of the highest stakes elections in our nation’s history. In doing so, our nation set a record for total voter turnout in a general election. In the 150 days since Joe Biden and Kamala…
The 2020 election cycle posed unprecedented challenges for campaigns, journalists, and political scientists examining voting trends across the United States. In response to a raging pandemic that upended all aspects of public life and threatened to torpedo voter participation, state and local officials unleashed a wave of new laws and regulations that left the voting…
At the outset of this pandemic, it was unclear as to how our damaged voting systems could adapt to this historic challenge and allow Americans to participate safely in this election. Many expected that voter the pandemic would depress voter turnout. In the end, this country set a record for voter participation, thanks to a…
Where Things Stand in GA and What to Expect With polls in Georgia closing in a few hours, where do things stand? Even before Election Day, we saw historic turnout for a runoff election. More than 3,000,000 Georgians already cast their ballots early, led by a surge in African-American turnout. Democrats can certainly win both seats, but…
GA Early Vote Analysis: Signs of a Durable Democratic Coalition In November, turnout in Georgia reached record levels and helped deliver the state’s 16 electoral votes for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Two weeks from today, Georgia voters will decide who will represent them in the Senate, and will decide which party controls the chamber.…
An Assessment of the AAPI Vote in the 2020 Presidential Election. As the last remaining votes of the 2020 general election are counted and the legal challenges continue, we’ve begun the work of digging through the available data to better understand what happened. This work will continue for the next several weeks, as states report…
TargetSmart Insights Tuesday, November 3, 2020 Throughout the early vote period, most states release regular data on who exactly has voted. When we pair that information with our national voter file, we can draw meaningful insights into the composition of the electorate as it comes together. South Carolina is a state that makes this type…
DATE: November 3, 2020 TO: Interested parties FROM: Ben Lazarus, TargetSmart Drew Linzer and Rachel Sinderbrand, Civiqs RE: Poll of Early Voters in Pennsylvania Shows Biden Besting Trump 79 to 19 percent TargetSmart and Civiqs are releasing the topline findings of a poll conducted among early voters in Pennsylvania from Sunday, November 1st through Monday…
1,455 days have passed since Election Day, 2016, meaning our countdown to the 2020 election has only hours remaining. Meanwhile, more than 94 million Americans have already recorded their votes in this historic election. It’s conceivable that the overall early vote will exceed 100 million votes, when all is said and done, more than doubling…
TargetSmart Insights Friday, October 30, 2020 Heading into the final home stretch we’ve added some additional functionality to our TargetEarly tool to help you analyze the historic early vote numbers. In 2016 we learned a lot about how to analyze early vote numbers. While the topline numbers may attract the most attention, to analyze the…
TargetSmart Insights Tuesday, October 27, 2020 One week until election day and 60,000,000 voters have already cast a ballot in the 2020 general election, shattering records for early vote. Significantly, first-time voters are casting their ballot at a higher rate than ever. 4,193,175 early, first-time voters have already cast their ballot. A huge portion of these…
TargetSmart Insights Sunday, October 25, 2020 With 9 days to go until November 3 more than 50,000,000 voters have cast ballots in the 2020 general election. This is a staggering, record-breaking turnout number. To compare, at this point in 2016, 22,896,414 votes had been cast. Below are a few takeaways. Texas Is In Play Turnout…
TargetSmart Insights Thursday, October 22, 2020 By this point, we all know that turnout is huge. At this point more than 40,000,000 Americans have already cast ballots. At TargetSmart, we match each and every one of these voters back to our voter file and are able to do a granular analysis of who exactly has…
Welcome to Insights – TargetSmart’s tipsheet to provide regular updates on the latest voter registration, early vote, and voter turnout trends. In the next day, we’ll be updating TargetEarly with a host of new functionality, including the ability to look at voters who have cast a ballot this year, but didn’t vote in 2016. Some…
Welcome to Insights – TargetSmart’s tip-sheet to provide regular updates on the latest voter registration, early vote, and voter turnout trends. Here are today’s key takeaways: Nationally, early and absentee voting is surging in a way we have not seen before. As of the morning of October 16, more than 5x as many votes have…
Welcome to Insights – TargetSmart’s tipsheet to provide regular updates on the latest voter registration, early vote, and voter turnout trends. Recently we launched TargetEarly, our comprehensive early vote dashboard that gives you the ability to analyze the early vote. The tool is updated daily and includes a wealth of demographic data including age, gender, race,…
Welcome to Insights – TargetSmart’s tipsheet to provide regular updates on the latest voter registration, early vote, and voter turnout trends. Yesterday we launched TargetEarly, our comprehensive early vote dashboard that gives you the ability to analyze the early vote. The tool is updated daily and includes a wealth of demographic data including age, gender, race,…
By Tom Bonier I’m excited to announce the public release of the 2020 iteration of our TargetEarly site. TargetEarly will provide a real-time look at the American electorate as voters cast what will certainly be a record number of votes before Election Day. We believe this site will provide important context to an election rife…
Welcome to Insights – TargetSmart’s tip-sheet to provide regular updates on the latest voter registration, early vote, and voter turnout trends. To date, we have spent a lot of time looking at who was registering to vote. While registration continues to be an important metric, moving forward we will focus on analyzing who has already…
Welcome to Insights – TargetSmart’s tip-sheet to provide regular updates on the latest voter registration, early vote, and voter turnout trends. Here are today’s key takeaways: As of Tuesday afternoon, TargetSmart has tracked 1,088,897 votes cast already in the 2020 general election. 7% of these voters are participating in their first general election. Based on…
Welcome to Insights – TargetSmart’s tip-sheet to provide regular updates on the latest voter registration, early vote, and voter turnout trends. Here are today’s key takeaways: As Sara Gideon mounts a strong campaign against Senator Susan Collins, new Democratic voter registrations are outpacing Republicans by a wide margin. By the end of August, Democrats lead…
Welcome to Insights – TargetSmart’s tipsheet to provide regular updates on the latest voter registration, early vote, and voter turnout trends. Here are today’s key takeaways: More than 16 million Americans have requested a mail ballot for the 2020 general election (this doesn’t include the all-mail states which pushes the total to over 65M). Among…
From: Insights@TargetSmart.com Re: Insights: Dems Outpace GOP in VBM Requests ————————————————————————– TargetSmart Insights Thursday, September 18th Welcome to Insights – TargetSmart’s tipsheet to provide regular updates on the latest voter registration, early vote, and voter turnout trends. Here are today’s key takeaways: More than 16 million Americans have requested a mail ballot for the 2020…
By Tom Bonier It’s an understatement to write that America is living through challenging times. We are experiencing a public health crisis, an economic crisis, widespread protests over racial injustice, and the impacts of climate change as wildfires spread on the West Coast. As a result, the composition of the electorate may be more fluid…
On September 18th, states will begin to allow voters to cast their ballots in-person, and more states will open early voting in the coming weeks. However, millions of voters across the country aren’t waiting for in-person voting to begin and have instead requested vote by mail ballots and it’s clear: Democrats are building a massive advantage…
Joe Biden holds a 7-point lead over Donald Trump, 51 to 44 percent, among likely 2020 voters in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, based on the findings of our recent statewide poll conducted over Labor Day weekend. Our poll shows Trump’s favorability ratings lagging well behind Biden’s. Just 42 percent of Pennsylvania voters have a…
Welcome to Insights – TargetSmart’s tipsheet to provide regular updates on the latest voter registration, early vote, and voter turnout trends. Yesterday we launched TargetEarly, our comprehensive early vote dashboard that gives you the ability to analyze the early vote. The tool is updated daily and includes a wealth of demographic data including age, gender, race,…
By Tom Bonier On September 18th, voting will begin in the 2020 general election. On that date, a few states will allow voters to begin casting their ballots. From that point onward, more and more states will open early and mail balloting. Every single state and the District of Columbia will afford some number of voters the opportunity…
In 2016, Trump only carried PA by 44,292 votes out of 6 million cast – a margin of just 0.7%. Since then 961,106 people have registered to vote in the Keystone state. Here’s what we know about citizens who have registered since 2016: New voters are disproportionately young and Democratic. Since 2016, 44% of new…
Democratic Voter Registration Advantage in GOP ‘Convention’ States of Florida and North Carolina By Tom Bonier Donald Trump was supposed to hold his convention this week in North Carolina, and then in Florida, in an effort to boost voter turnout and generate enthusiasm among his supporters in those states. Well, his convention didn’t go as…
The GOP’s Claims About a Voter Registration Advantage in PA Aren’t True. Here are the Facts. By Tom Bonier As Joe Biden prepares to address the nation as the Democratic nominee, Donald Trump is attempting to steal the spotlight with his own speech outside of Scranton, Pennsylvania. It’s no surprise the Trump campaign chose this…
The GOP’s Claims About a Voter Registration Advantage in PA Aren’t True. Here are the Facts. By Tom Bonier As Joe Biden prepares to address the nation as the Democratic nominee, Donald Trump is attempting to steal the spotlight with his own speech outside of Scranton, Pennsylvania. It’s no surprise the Trump campaign chose this…
The composition of the electorate may be more fluid this cycle than any presidential election in recent memory. The combination of the global pandemic and the historic protests in response to the police killings of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, and Ahmaud Arbery have had a profound impact on most aspects of our lives. The question…
The entirety of the Trump presidency has been marked by uncertainty and volatility for our country, exponentially more so during the coronavirus pandemic. As we focused our efforts on understanding how a pandemic which has seen people of color impacted more severely than white Americans, the creation of an economic recession, and an inspiring movement…
The pandemic will have had a profound impact on this year’s election. TargetSmart is committed to studying how the pandemic has impacted voters’ views on voting and we are keeping a close eye on how it is affecting the electorate more broadly. Earlier this year, we saw a significant voter registration surge compared to the same time in the…
As part of a national study of public opinion on the public health and economic dimensions of the coronavirus crisis and its impact on voting and elections, TargetSmart and Dynata conducted a Georgia-specific oversample to measure voter sentiment as the state reopens its economy. Toplines, crosstabs, and a full statement on the poll’s methodology can be found by visiting insights.targetsmart.com.…
Though concern about the coronavirus seems to both be abating slightly and becoming more polarized by partisanship in recent weeks, American voters are souring on President Trump’s handling of the crisis and coalescing around the idea that we will not be getting back to normal life any time soon. At the same time, despite Trump’s…
As we all continue to adjust to a new normal, we’re seeing changes in nearly every aspect of our day-to-day lives – how we work, how our kids experience school, and more. We’ve been focused on gaining a better understanding of how the coronavirus outbreak will impact this year’s elections. In this edition of our…
The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted every facet of American life. As we’ve all seen in recent weeks, the crisis is also having a profound effect on how elections are administered, and campaigns are run. While it will be some time until we have a full picture of how the crisis has shaped the electorate, an…
Most American voters are concerned that the ongoing coronavirus outbreak will prevent U.S. citizens from participating in the 2020 elections. As a result, huge majorities are supportive of a broad array of reforms to ensure it is safe to vote come November. These findings are drawn from a nationwide study of registered voters in the…
As we make the quick pivot from this past weekend’s South Carolina primary to the first (and biggest) multi-state contest in the Democratic nominating process, there are already tea leaves to be read regarding Democratic intensity and enthusiasm. 14 states hold primaries tomorrow, along with caucuses in American Samoa. But in reality, most of these…
As we make the quick pivot from this past weekend’s South Carolina primary to the first (and biggest) multi-state contest in the Democratic nominating process, there are already tea leaves to be read regarding Democratic intensity and enthusiasm. 14 states hold primaries tomorrow, along with caucuses in American Samoa. But in reality, most of these…
FEBRUARY 25, 2020 Thanks for taking the time to check out our first TargetSmart Insights election data newsletter. As the election year unfolds, the punditry is only going to increase – and TargetSmart’s goal is to guide the noise with interesting data and nuanced analysis. My hope is to share, about once a week, some…
Key Precinct-Level Analysis Takeaways: Precinct-level turnout analysis suggests that increased Spanish language advertising in a media market predicts significantly and substantially increased Latinx turnout. Immigration-related Spanish advertising spending predicts significantly higher Latinx turnout at the precinct level, while English language immigration-related advertising does not. Key Market-Level Analysis Takeaways: Market-level synthetic control analyses show that in…
All eyes turn to Virginia ahead of its statewide elections on November 5th, where all 40 seats in the state Senate and 100 seats in state House of Delegates are up for re-election. Despite Virginia’s long history as a battleground state, it has trended blue in recent years, most notably in 2017 when Democrats flipped…
State: Senate District: Demographic: Demographic Value: NJVA All001002003004005006007008009010011012013014015016017018019020021022023024025026027028029030031032033034035036037038039040 AgeRaceGenderVoter ScoreParty RollupUrbanicityRace with Education All18-2930-3940-4950-6465+ Share Custom URL – 2015- 2017- 2019 18 -2930- 3940-4950-6465+70% 65% 60%…
As a dozen Democratic presidential candidates descend upon Westerville, Ohio, for this week’s debate, whether Ohio remains a true battleground state or whether its Republican-leaning trend will continue remains to be seen. Having voted for the Democratic nominee in four of the last ten elections, Ohio voters delivered Donald Trump the largest winning margin (eight…
As nearly two dozen Democratic presidential candidates descend upon Detroit for next week’s debate, the state of Michigan’s electorate — and what that portends for the 2020 election — couldn’t be more important. Having voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in six consecutive elections from 1992 through 2012, and thus becoming part of the so-called…
Executive Summary In recognition of the key role young voters played in the 2018 midterm elections, and will play in the 2020 presidential election, TargetSmart’s Research and Analytics team commissioned a TargetSmart/Civiqs poll of 1,912 Democratic primary voters aged 18-34 in all fifty states and the District of Columbia in partnership with The Alliance for…
It’s been seven months since the historic 2018 midterm elections, when major Democratic victories in Republican-held districts led to Democrats claiming the House of Representatives and several GOP-held governorships. Since then, some election analyses have pointed to how younger voters, voters of color, and women played a central role in some of these swing districts…
The blue wave that defined the 2018 midterm elections was especially evident in California, where Democrats flipped seven key House seats, including long-time Republican-held seats in bastions of conservatism like Orange County. According to a new TargetSmart analysis, a significant surge in the vote share of young and Hispanic voters compared to previous elections reflects…
Victory in Iowa Democrats have been fretting in recent years about how once-purple Iowa was ostensibly slipping into red territory. After President Barack Obama won the state twice, the 2014 and 2016 election cycles saw Republicans expand and maintain their grip on state and federal seats. November 2018’s midterm elections show, however, that despite older…
In an historic midterm election defined by Congressional and gubernatorial seats flipping from Republicans to Democrats, Ohio was an outlier. Going into the 2018 election, Ohio Republicans held 12 House seats and the Governor’s mansion; Ohio Democrats held four House seats and a Senate seat — exactly the same as today. While other traditional and…
Following an electrifying Senate race where Beto O’Rourke’s campaign nearly claimed Ted Cruz’s Senate seat, an energized youth vote may spell trouble for Donald Trump, John Cornyn, and vulnerable House Republicans in 2020. A new Quinnipiac poll lends credence to this possibility, revealing a virtual polling tie between Trump and leading Democratic contenders including Beto…
A new TargetSmart analysis reveals a shift toward a younger and more diverse electorate in Arizona, solidifying its status as an emergent swing state ahead of the 2020 election. The analysis finds that more than a third of voters of color were under 24 years old, suggesting the potential for long-term power at the polls…
National Summary Demographic: Demographic Value: Type: AgeRaceGenderVoter ScoreParty RollupUrbanicityRace with Education All18-2930-3940-4950-6465+ Vote ShareTurnout Share Custom URL – 2014- 2016- 201818-2930-3940-4950-6465+45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%10.5%12.7%7.1%13.2%14.4%10.7%15.0%15.9%15.5%30.0%29.6%34.3%30.9%26.7%31.4% Demo201420162018 18-29 5,778,594 17,533,091 12,283,554 30-39 8,737,605 19,906,283 15,518,027 40-49 12,659,736 21,932,399 17,562,723 50-64 28,048,268…
It’s been nearly a month since a historic blue wave swept across the country, a midterm election that saw Democrats pick up at least 40 seats in the House plus 7 governor’s seats, in addition to hundreds of state legislative seats nationwide. Stacey Abrams, the Democratic candidate for governor in Georgia, fell just short, but…
With just over 24 hours until the first polls close, more than 35 million Americans have already voted in the 2018 midterm elections — a 176 percent increase over the 20 million people who voted at this point in 2014. While early vote data cannot predict election day turnout, there are key insights that we can draw…
Last week TargetSmart launched TargetEarly, a one-stop interactive dashboard of early vote data for 42 states. So far in 2018, over 22 million people have already voted with 6 days until election day. By comparison in the 2014 midterms, just over 83 million people voted in total. While early vote has consistently increased over the last…
