President Biden has rolled out the most progressive policy agenda in a generation. With aspirations to raise the minimum wage, build a path to citizenship for immigrants, curb gun violence, make it easier to vote, and address climate change by generating millions of new clean energy jobs, the Biden Administration is pushing policies aimed at transforming America. However, narrow majorities in Congress, well-funded opponents, and legislative delays all pose threats to achieving these ambitious policy outcomes.
We know that many of our clients are working to ensure Biden’s agenda can move through both houses of Congress this legislative session. In the analysis below, we highlight the states and districts where clients may focus their advocacy resources and assets we can provide for targeted program execution.
Don’t hesitate to reach out to sales@targetsmart.com to learn more.
Top Targets
Democrats hold a narrow advantage in the House and the Senate is evenly divided between parties with Vice President Kamala Harris able to break ties there in favor of Democrats.
Given the political dynamics and the impending 2022 elections, no matter the issue, the legislative targets remain the same: Frontline House members and incumbent Senators with narrow paths to reelection.
In March the DCCC named 32 frontline house targets. We expect those members will be at the crux of support for Biden’s policy agenda.
District | Elected member | Party |
---|---|---|
AZ-01 | Tom O’Halleran | Dem |
CA-10 | Josh Harder | Dem |
CA-45 | Katie Porter | Dem |
CA-49 | Mike Levin | Dem |
CT-05 | Jahana Hayes | Dem |
GA-06 | Lucy McBath | Dem |
GA-07 | Carolyn Bourdeaux | Dem |
IA-03 | Cynthia Axne | Dem |
IL-14 | Lauren Underwood | Dem |
KS-03 | Sharice Davids | Dem |
ME-02 | Jared F. Golden | Dem |
MI-08 | Elissa Slotkin | Dem |
MI-11 | Haley M. Stevens | Dem |
MN-02 | Angie Craig | Dem |
NH-01 | Chris Pappas | Dem |
NJ-03 | Andy Kim | Dem |
NJ-07 | Tom Malinowski | Dem |
NJ-11 | Mikie Sherrill | Dem |
NV-03 | Susie Lee | Dem |
NV-04 | Steven Horsford | Dem |
NY-19 | Antonio Delgado | Dem |
OR-04 | Peter A. DeFazio | Dem |
PA-07 | Susan Wild | Dem |
PA-08 | Matt Cartwright | Dem |
PA-17 | Conor Lamb | Dem |
TX-07 | Lizzie Fletcher | Dem |
TX-15 | Vicente Gonzalez | Dem |
TX-32 | Colin Z. Allred | Dem |
VA-02 | Elaine G. Luria | Dem |
VA-07 | Abigail Davis Spanberger | Dem |
WA-08 | Kim Schrier | Dem |
WI-03 | Ron Kind | Dem |
Drilling down even further, there were only 16 districts—nine held by Republicans, seven by Democrats—where voters split their ballots between the presidential and congressional races in the 2020 general election.
District | Elected member | Party | Flipped seat | House Margin | President Margin | Diff. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NY-24 | John Katko | Rep |
R+10.2
|
D+9.1
|
19.2 | |
PA-01 | Brian K. Fitzpatrick | Rep |
R+13.1
|
D+5.8
|
19 | |
ME-02 | Jared F. Golden | Dem |
D+6.1
|
R+7.4
|
13.5 | |
CA-21 | David G. Valadao | Rep | ✔️ |
R+0.9
|
D+10.9
|
11.8 |
CA-39 | Young Kim | Rep | ✔️ |
R+1.2
|
D+10.1
|
11.3 |
NE-02 | Don Bacon | Rep |
R+4.6
|
D+6.5
|
11.1 | |
CA-25 | Mike Garcia | Rep |
R+0.1
|
D+10.1
|
10.2 | |
PA-08 | Matt Cartwright | Dem |
D+3.5
|
R+4.4
|
8 | |
NJ-03 | Andy Kim | Dem |
D+7.8
|
R+0.2
|
7.9 | |
WI-03 | Ron Kind | Dem |
D+2.7
|
R+4.7
|
7.4 | |
TX-24 | Beth Van Duyne | Rep |
R+1.3
|
D+5.4
|
6.7 | |
FL-27 | Maria Elvira Salazar | Rep | ✔️ |
R+2.7
|
D+3.2
|
5.9 |
IL-17 | Cheri Bustos | Dem |
D+4.1
|
R+1.6
|
5.7 | |
MI-08 | Elissa Slotkin | Dem |
D+3.6
|
R+0.8
|
4.4 | |
CA-48 | Michelle Steel | Rep | ✔️ |
R+2.1
|
D+1.5
|
3.6 |
IA-03 | Cynthia Axne | Dem |
D+1.4
|
R+0.1
|
1.5 |
In the Senate, there are 34 seats up for election in 2022. Among those contests, the Cook Political Report identifies five in which incumbents will likely face stiff competition:
- Cortez-Masto (D-NV)
- Hassen (D-NH)
- Kelly (D-AZ)
- Johnson (R-WI)
- Warnock (D-GA)
Also, five Republican senators have announced retirements ahead of 2022. The Cook Report rates three of those contests—in North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania—as toss ups.
Available Assets
Many progressive groups already use TargetSmart’s propriety national database to identify and activate supporters based on a wide range of criteria including age, race, voting behavior, political ideology, and more. In addition, we offer predictive models and highly-curated data sets especially useful for clients advocating for the Biden legislative agenda.
Activist Model
Our activist model scores each person in the U.S. voting age population on how likely they will take political action when prompted. This model is an excellent resource for targeting patch through call programs.
Click HERE to download an excel doc with state-by-state and district-by-district counts of people within each score decile. You can work with TargetSmart to access these audiences for online or offline activation.
10.5 million voting age people currently score above 80 on our activist model.
- 2.3 million reside in a state with a competitive senate race.
- 624,812 reside in a DCCC frontline district.
- 231,326 reside in both.
Issue Models
TargetSmart offers several predictive models of nationwide support for the minimum wage, climate action, labor unions, and other issues key to the politics of the American Jobs Plan. Other issue-based models help our clients find audiences receptive to focused messaging, for instance, about the economic challenges addressed within the AJP.
In particular, our progressive tax model scores each person in the U.S. voting age population on their likely alignment with progressive tax policies such as proposals to increase wealth taxes in order to fund government programs like the American Jobs Plan and the American Families Plan.
Click HERE to download an excel doc with state-by-state and district-by-district counts of people within each score decile. You can work with TargetSmart to access these audiences for online or offline activation.
34 million voting age people currently score above 90 on our Progressive Tax model.
- 7 million reside in a state with a competitive senate race.
- 2.2 million reside in a DCCC frontline district.
- 819,705 reside in both.
BUSINESS LEADERS
We have built a rich data set of over 18.5 million U.S. business leaders, including 8.5 million business owners, 3.1 million of whom are likely Democrats. We compiled this asset by integrating more than 60 major commercial and government databases and matching those records to TargetSmart’s VoterBase. The final product empowers ours clients to select highly customized audiences using a wide range of available fields like title, industry category, employee size, and sales volume.
Click HERE to download an excel doc with state-by-state counts of business owners with breakdowns by registration status, likely party and other demographic categories. You can work with TargetSmart to access these audiences for online or offline activation.