Though concern about the coronavirus seems to both be abating slightly and becoming more polarized by partisanship in recent weeks, American voters are souring on President Trump’s handling of the crisis and coalescing around the idea that we will not be getting back to normal life any time soon. At the same time, despite Trump’s…
The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted every facet of American life. As we’ve all seen in recent weeks, the crisis is also having a profound effect on how elections are administered, and campaigns are run. While it will be some time until we have a full picture of how the crisis has shaped the electorate, an…
Most American voters are concerned that the ongoing coronavirus outbreak will prevent U.S. citizens from participating in the 2020 elections. As a result, huge majorities are supportive of a broad array of reforms to ensure it is safe to vote come November. These findings are drawn from a nationwide study of registered voters in the…
As we make the quick pivot from this past weekend’s South Carolina primary to the first (and biggest) multi-state contest in the Democratic nominating process, there are already tea leaves to be read regarding Democratic intensity and enthusiasm. 14 states hold primaries tomorrow, along with caucuses in American Samoa. But in reality, most of these…
Key Precinct-Level Analysis Takeaways: Precinct-level turnout analysis suggests that increased Spanish language advertising in a media market predicts significantly and substantially increased Latinx turnout. Immigration-related Spanish advertising spending predicts significantly higher Latinx turnout at the precinct level, while English language immigration-related advertising does not. Key Market-Level Analysis Takeaways: Market-level synthetic control analyses show that in…
All eyes turn to Virginia ahead of its statewide elections on November 5th, where all 40 seats in the state Senate and 100 seats in state House of Delegates are up for re-election. Despite Virginia’s long history as a battleground state, it has trended blue in recent years, most notably in 2017 when Democrats flipped…
