Welcome to Insights – TargetSmart’s tipsheet to provide regular updates on the latest voter registration, early vote, and voter turnout trends.
Yesterday we launched TargetEarly, our comprehensive early vote dashboard that gives you the ability to analyze the early vote. The tool is updated daily and includes a wealth of demographic data including age, gender, race, and education level, as well as whether voters live in urban, suburban, or rural areas, and whether they are frequent or infrequent voters. You can look at the data nationally or by state, county or congressional district. For more visit TargetEarly.TargetSmart.com.
Here are today’s key takeaways:
5.9 million Americans have already voted. By comparison, just 750,000 people had voted by this time in 2016. Let’s take a closer look at the numbers…
Of those who have already voted, 1.25 million have never voted or are infrequent voters, a roughly five fold increase compared to 2016.
Democratic Strength in Florida
At this point in 2016 in Florida, Republicans held a very slight vote lead among the early votes, based on modeled partisanship. With the massive surge in early voting this year, Democrats currently have a modeled partisan ID lead among votes cast thus far of more than 150,000 votes. In total, nearly 950,000 Floridians have already cast their ballots, compared to roughly 50,000 at this point in 2016.
Youth Vote Update
382,933 voters under the age of 30 have already cast a ballot in the 2020 general election, as compared to 49,579 at this point in 2016.
Beyond the remarkable overall surge, most notable is the partisanship. In 2016 these younger early voters were +13D. This year, they are +34D.